I’m not certain if the Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates in March; currently, the probability is around 50%, and I’m hesitant to make a prediction. According to Tom Lee’s forecast, if the IWM ends above 300 by the end of 2024, there could be a potential increase of over 50%. I’m considering investing 15% of my portfolio in TNA to potentially gain 150% or more, especially if the price follows a consistent upward trajectory. Given the significantly different macroeconomic environment compared to 2023 and 2022, I believe that the IWM is unlikely to reach a new low since 2021. My immediate goal is to enter TNA at favorable prices.
I anticipate that the IWM may revisit the 188-190 range due to a pullback in the SPX and QQQ. If the pullback is substantial or if the probability of a rate cut in March decreases, it could decline even further. I intend to purchase IWM at 188, 184, 180, and 172, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels, with each price point representing a 1/4 position. If the price does not drop as anticipated, I will consider buying during a breakout to achieve higher highs. My plan is to acquire all TNA positions before the end of March.
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我不确定三月份美联储是否会降息，目前机率大约是50%，我不想去打赌。根据汤姆·李的预测，如果截至2024年底IWM结束在300以上，可能会有超过50%的上升空间。我想尝试用我的15%投资组合来赌TNA能获得150%的收益（如果价格一直直线上涨可能会更多）。考虑到2023年和2022年的宏观环境与众不同，我认为自2021年以来IWM不太可能再次创造新低。我的当前任务是以合适价格进入TNA。
我认为IWM可能会因为SPX和QQQ的回调再次测试188-190，如果回调更大或三月份降息的机率降低，它可能会跌得更低。我打算在188、184、180和172加码IWM，符合斐波那契回撤。每个价位占1/4仓位。如果价格不会下降那麽低，我会考虑在突破时买入以实现高点。我的计划是在三月底前购入所有TNA仓位。
